Posts Tagged ‘statistics’

Source Socketsite: http://www.socketsite.com

The chart above is from the excellent blog socketsite.com, which has a great post on the San Francisco Case Schiller Index.  From the chart, it would certainly appear that we’re at or near the bottom in terms of price declines.  Assuming there are no more hidden surprises in the national economy, my sense is that we are reaching a bottom.  The question is whether the current uptick shows that we have not only reached a bottom, but are once again starting to see some slow and steady appreciation.  It may very well drop down again and stay at the bottom for several months.

On the other hand, it may mimic the stock market and have a reasonably moderate bounce back, as people generally overreact both ways: when prices are going down people are afraid of paying too much then losing money, when prices are going up people are afraid of waiting too long then paying too much. Unlike the stock market, though, there are still a lot of complex issues in the real estate market that need resolving, from foreclosures to the FHA.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Activity Statistics

The above chart, from Altos Research, shows the “Market Action Index” for the four price tiers of San Francisco condos.  The market action index doesn’t measure a single specific stat, such as sales price or volume.  Instead, it is a combination of those stats and more, developed by Altos Research, to give a rough sense of what the market is doing.

From looking at this chart, it would appear that the bottom was closer to April and May, and that we are now doing substantially better.  As with all statistics, though, it’s important to keep in mind this is just one piece of data.  From what I’ve been seeing, there are still many short sales out there with the potential for a fair amount more to come.